2012 Log

• 11:16 - Champagne popped.  G'night.
• 11:13 - Ohio.  Over.  !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
• 11:10 - NBC has called Iowa.  Nevada and Oregon will be next, and then he'll be at 262.  CO or OH or VA or FL.  Pick one.
• 11:06 - I now see Obama with about 80k more votes in VA based on Fairfax and Norfolk, and he's behind by 24k.  I'm sensing another 'apparent winner' call
• 11:00 - on PBS now, NC has finally been called for Romney.  NBC callls him an 'apparent winner'  Stiiiiiilllllll not calling FL, OH, VA
• 10:54 - haven't seen a network feed in a bit, but looks like Kaine will win Senate in VA, as he is still out-performing Obama by about 2 points.  Only disappointing Senate race, from a (D) perspective, would be Carmona in AZ, as it looked for a little while like he could win, but he wasn't ready for prime time ("you're prettier than her" really?)  Only remaining close race in the Senate, if I recall off the top of my head, would be Tester in Montana.
• 10:51 - Jeebus local channel 7, please go back to national coverage, I don't need to see Scott Brown hugging people after his concession speech. btw, his speech was very much not I'm leaving politics.  He'll be back
• 10:44 - with a third reporting, Obama holding a decent lead in CO.  He doesn't need OH or VA or FL if he wins CO, now that NH, IA, and NV are in hand.
• 10:41 - Eyeball of results in VA suggests that Obama has about 70k of additional votes waiting in the DC burbs.  Currently he's down by 35k.  Norfolk county, though, hasn't reported anything
• 10:31 - I have a suspicion that they won't call Ohio or Virginia until polls close in California/Oregon/Washington, so that those EVs actually put him over the top.  Those states close at 11pm
• 10:26 - Tierney looks like he'll hold on in MA-6, so it looks like we're back to an all-blue state.  Medical pot wins by 2-1, assisted suicide losing, but it is close
• 10:20 - hard to believe, GOP spends most of their debates screaming about who would deport more of the browns and 69% of Latinos vote Obama.  
• 10:12 - Ohio called for Sherrod Brown.  Obama and Brown have the same percentage, little evidence of vote splitting.  This should be called soon.  Duckworth wins too, happy to hear it.
• 10:08 - Todd making it seem like Florida could actually be called before Ohio.  That I would not have predicted.  Finally NBC talking House of Reps, still strongly Repub.  Debt ceiling negotiation/hostage-taking will be interesting.
• 10:06 - while Axelrod is interviewed, McCaskill called.  I figured that out a little while ago...
• 10:00 - Iowa too early meaning Obama won it, ditto Nevada.  Now, for sure, either Virginia or Ohio or Florida puts Obama over the top.  This is over in 30 minutes.  
• 9:58 - Talked to Aunt Jenny, who brought in the state of NH singlehandedly.  She's an old Dukakis staffer (who is still out and about quite a bit in Brookline, always picking up trash when he sees it).  And now Kennedy acceptance speech.  Not my district, but glad he acknowledged Barney Frank's husband.
• 9:51 - NH in the W column, this thing is damn near over!
• 9:49 - Medical Pot, coming to MA!  Death with Dignity still quite close, too early to call.
• 9:42 - time to hand over the barn jacket Scott!  Warren wins!!!
• 9:40 - over half of NC is in, and right now Obama is -3.  By my math, he has a cushion of -7 to keep up with his 2008 margin and still win.  So he's ahead of that, and that's good
• 9:38 - Colorado early returns seem to have heavily favored Obama, but note that unlike in many other early voting states, CO did not have a significant D lean in terms of who voted early.  
• 9:35 - My Manhattan is delicious. Apparently the internet lied to me about Warren, but still, she's my next Senator.  Early, but McCaskill outperforming Obama big time in MO, as is Baldwin, and both of those states have been called presidentially.  So I think the Sen. Dems will gain two women and keep a third.  
• 9:31 - Every time I see the Florida results come up I can't help but laugh because this is no way to run a democracy; quick edit: because polls are closed but people are still waiting in line to vote
• 9:29 - I think NBC has done a great job so far, little idiot-speak, mostly data/results.  But my local NBC affiliate keeps breaking in and they have nothing to say.  Boston hasn't reported at all and Warren is already ahead.  Trust me mom, it is over!
• 9:21 - Internets tells me NBC has called Warren, but NBC hasn't told me that yet. I choose to believe the internet, although the Call to Mom won't occur until I hear the network say it
• 9:17 - okay, NBC calls PA.  Doesn't change anything, but the sooner it was called, the better for PA.  Manhattan was the decision, btw.
• 9:14 - Baldwin -4 from Obama in WI, and leading Thompson by 2.  
• 9:07 - Yay NJ
• 9:02 - Feeling like this will end sooner rather than later
• 9:00 - Wisconsin and Minnesota too early, certainly a good sign.  Amazing that NM is now an obvious blue state, that took only two election cycles.
• 8:58 - thinking very hard about whether it is time for a beer or a Manhattan.  Exit polls (my recycle bin) show that I have had four (4) beers
• 8:56 - Twitterverse is definitely feeling good for Obama based on some micro-analysis of various bellweather counties in VA.  
• 8:52 - still not a ton reporting in VA, but Kaine +4 over Obama surprises me
• 8:51 - I am in love with Chuck Todd talking about the Puerto Rican vote in Orange county in Florida.  
• 8:46 - absent Nate Silver telling me what to think, still a lot of squinting at tea leaves.  That NC is still neck and neck is probably a good sign.  I call bull shit on the exit poll that says 17% of voters thought Obama's Hurricane Sandy response mattered for shit
• 8:38 - Chandler likely out in KY-6. How Obama wins while House Dems lose (or just hold serve) is either political brilliance by Obama or malpractice by House Dems
• 8:33 - ah, the waiting. Feeling confident.  Also, in MA, looks like assisted suicide and medical pot are looking like they'll pass, at least with early results
• 8:15 - with second wave of exit polls, now Warren at +16 among women, -9 among men.  She's got it
• 8:06 - Florida early vote, to me, suggests that Romney has an edge? I think? But no votes yet from Miami-Dade yet, according to Chuck Todd?
• 8:03 - McCaskill too early to call, excellent news.  Akin is an ass clown.  
• 8:00 - damn, Florida starts with 41% in.  Wow.  PA too early to call, a definite good sign for Obama.  
• 7:59 - Donnelly +6 in Indiana, Obama only -11.  Liking the trend.  Excellent (strumming fingers...)
• 7:58 - exit poll in Mass: Warren +14 among women, Brown +10 among men.  Again, I think Warren has this, polls close in 2 minutes.
• 7:56 - Scott Brown: "there are no more twitters I can do"
• 7:54 - with ~10% in, Obama getting his clock cleaned in VA.  Of course, where votes come from matter a lot.  Huh, Lenny Clarke is a Scott Brown guy.  He is not funny.
• 7:30 - with 25% in, Obama is behind in Kentucky -14; in 2008, he was -16
• 7:28 - No daylight between Kaine and Obama in early VA returns.
• 7:24 - Donnelly now ahead of Mourdock, and Obama -16.  Still a 7 points spread between Donnelly and Obama
• 7:11 - Donnelly and Mourdock now tied in IN, Obama down to a -18 deficit.  Trending well
• 7:09 - when states (precincts?) decide to dump out the early voting will make following running totals very spiky.  This'll be a big issue in VA and OH
• 7:00 - what does Brian Williams start with?  Wow, VA too close to call, shocked.  Hmm, already call Indiana... that's not necessarily good.... but SC too early to call?  Odd.  VT to Obama.  Georgia too early too.  Of course, difference between too early and too close.  Indiana senate too close, SC/GA too early
• 6:53 - Obama now at a -22 in Indiana, - 7 relative to Donnelly
• 6:45 - let me clarify my previous statement.  Donnelly will probably win, or be very very close.  Obama is currently behind Donnelly by 7 points, and so long as that doesn't change too much, I think Indiana still doesn't portend other-state-doom for Obama
• 6:41 - If you take the results from 2008 and use that to project, it suggests that Obama can afford to lose Indiana by ~7 points.  He is currently down by 25.  This does not worry me, it is early
• 6:39 - CBS news maps do not seem to be cpu hogs, according to my very non scientific survey.  Also, I am currently wearing a crown my daughter made for me that prominently features various NFL logo stickers, kindly sent to me, for free, by Sports Illustrated while trying to get me to resubscribe.
• 6:31 - With one county performing, Obama is underperforming Donnelly by 5 points.  I think that bodes well for both.
• 6:29 - "He said Ohio!  Last night we had Ohio pizza!"  No Charlotte, last night we had Hawaiian pizza
• 6:26 - most annoying part of having 15 tabs open? Figuring out which one is sucking up all my cpus and causing the fan to turn on my Macbook Air.  I hate that fan.  
• 6:02: two minutes of news coverage, too idiotic.  Flipped to PBS.  Soothing.  Major networks start coverage at 7pm.  
• 5:56: gearing up for turning on the TV.  If NBC hasn't started their network coverage yet then I will subsist on CNN.  Would obviously prefer MSNBC, but that is a 'premium' channel here in Boston, along with the NFL Network.  FoxNews, however, is included even on basic cable.  F'ers.
• 5:55: How does one exist on Facebook on a night like this? If I had to read every idiotic political opinion of everyone I know, I would either go insane or start writing back ("posting on their wall"... did I use that phrase correctly?), either way, I would definitely have fewer friends the next day.
• 5:40: Of the early states, while it is duh obvious to look at Virginia (7pm closing), don't forget NH (8pm closing).  While its 4 EVs are unlikely to be critical (exception: 2000), it is a good bellweather, and since it is a small state, we'll probably know sooner rather than later.  Obama wins by 3+ points, that's very good news.  Romney wins, very bad news.
• 5:05: So, beyond an Obama victory, what do I want to see tonight? Warren, McCaskill, Baldwin.  I actually like Warren, and while McCaskill hasn't terribly impressed me in her first term (she's no Wyden, but really, who is?) Akin would be a disaster.  Duckworth would be great, Thompson would bring nothing to the table but partisan hackery and bad hair.
• 5:00pm: open first beer (Dos Equis... not sure why)
• 4:30pm: get home, busy myself with mindless household tasks.  Background music: "Wrecking Ball"
• 3:30pm: bike from work to Blanchard's, pick up champagne (my guy wins), whiskey (my guy loses), beer (while I wait)
• 12:00 - 1pm: over pizza, give an impromptu lecture on electoral history since 1960 and review various polling/prediciton metrics (Nate Silver, e.g.).  People seem satisfied
• 11:00am: technicians in lab convince me to order pizza and talk about the election at lunch time.  I agree
• 8:00am: arrive at work.  Poll folks from various areas for how long their wait times were, some over half an hour.  This is a good sign for Warren, I'd think.
• 7:15am: arrive at polling station to vote.  Line about 15 minutes deep, which is heavy volume for this station.