Tuesday, November 4, 2008

Election Day!

11:18pm - Well, after sveral minutes of jumping up and down, we've won, and now McCan has coneeded. Thank logic and reason, Obama won.

10:40 pm - After looking at every possible scenario, Obama will be president (I can't type right now because I'm hammered b/c I decided this in my mind an hour ago)... Holy hell, this is unreal. Wow, wow, wow! WOW!

10:37 pm - So when does Obama speak? Is this the most significant moment of my lifetime? I think it is... WE WON WE WON WE WON!!!

10:05 pm - Corks popped, sobriety lost, WE WON!!!

9:42 pm - Apparently my math doesn't mean shit, but Chuck Todd's does.. I'm about to get the champagne

9:35 pm - Others in my home have not allowed me to pop the corks yet. But in my mind, and voice, which is loud, it is over!


9:17 pm - Just as in '06, Virginia tightening as the night goes on... good sign for Obama

9:09 pm - A bit surprised that more hasn't been called yet, but things still trending Obama's way. Remember, VA went LATE for Webb in '06, very late. VA will still flip, I think...

8:50 pm - Looks like Florida might be called for Obama before Virginia....

8:36 pm - Don't like that GA got called so early...

8:04 pm - and NH called immediately!!!

8:00 pm - That PA got called as the same time as MA (i.e. when polls closed) is a really really good sign.

7:43 pm - On MSNBC... what is the difference between too CLOSE to call and too EARLY to call... probably something about where the exit polls think it is going and how much of the actual vote totals reflect that...

7:35 pm - Indiana too close to call: good.... Virginia Obama behind: bad. Meaningless, of course, because we don't have full demographic breakdown so we can't figure out who's over and under performing. But still, angst ain't fun. Confident I am, but angst.

7:15 pm - Indiana still close... the longer it stays closer, the better Obama's chances

6:52 pm - only 10% in, but Kentucky is close... he ain't going to win, but if he even kept it close.

6:40 pm - 20 minutes to Virginia... A few days ago I predicted that Virginia would be called at 9:16pm, so I guess I'll stick with that.

6:13 pm - I just spent some time checking out various news organizations' websites for electoral results, and CNN.com's seems the most intuitive to me (assuming you have an updated version of Flash). Quite nicely, you can mouse over a map of the state and, county by county, see the results. This particularly helps when there are urban areas and rural areas and you want to see how they are voting.

6:04 pm - An email is circulating regarding a plea from the Obama campaign in Minnesota urging people to get out and vote, that the race is closer than they expect. While that sounds ominous, let's note that the Senate race is very close, and Obama voters are likely to be Franklin voters.

4:45 pm - Final tally from the Electoral Vote Prediction contest. Average Obama total is 337. Majorities have Obama winning NM, MI, PA, WI, NH, CO, NV, MN, VA, FL, and OH (in that order). Missouri came in at just under 50% for Obama, while NC and IN were predicted to go McCain's way about two-thirds of the time.

4:09 pm - Back from blood, class, and voting. No lines right now (mid-day is a good time to go, not surprisingly). My favorite site, fivethirtyeight.com, predicts Obama 349, McCain 189. We're just under three hours away from the polls closing in Virginia. Remember, though, it takes a long time to collect and count all the votes -- I remember the Webb/Allen Senate race, which was very close, not getting called until around midnight, and turnout in a mid-term election is significantly lower than right now. The networks arne't going to make any calls based on exit polling alone, so it will be some time before even the early states get called. From previous elections, I recall that CNN.com tends to have the best county-by-county breakdown of results, which is very important for determining what the cumulative vote of a state actually means (i.e. if Obama is neck-and-neck in Virginia but most of the DC suburbs haven't reported yet, then that's a good sign).

11:00 am - Off to donate blood (I wonder if I'll bleed Obama blue). If I get one more free Red Cross T-shirt, they will own a majority of my dresser drawer (but still not be able to invoke cloture).

10:01 am - Long lines everywhere today, yet another reminder that we have such a bizarre voting system. There's all this crap about voter fraud and purging of rolls and such. I think a lot of this stems from simple clerical errors (i.e. does your ID list your middle initial but the voter roll doesn't). Also, when you move (which young people do a lot) you need to specifically remember to change your voting address with the board of elections -- why this can't be done automatically when you change your driver's license, IRS address, etc. is beyond me. And why doesn't every state have no-questions-asked early voting? Open up the polls for a week. Yes, it would cost more, but as a fraction of the budget it would be pretty damn tiny.

9:02 am - from Matt Yglesias, a nice statement on the idiocy of Joe the Plumber:
Thus, a white male small-business owner practicing a blue collar trade and earning enough money to be hit by Obama’s tax hikes is nothing other than the Platonic Ideal of a Republican (think Tom DeLay when he owned a successful bug-killing business). Republican crowds go wild for Joe because they can identify with him. But by the same token, the people who identify with Joe are the Republican base. They can’t turn this thing around. And they’re certainly not the people you’re supposed to be talking to in October. It’d be as if Barack Obama were criss-crossing the country with a young, hip lesbian acting as his main surrogate to attack McCain’s health care plan.

8:41 am - Karl Rove predicts 338 Obama, 200 McCain. Of the true swing states, he has Florida and Ohio going for Obama, while Missouri, North Carolina, and Indiana stay red.

8:17 am - Pollster.com has its pretty-much-final analysis up, and they have 273 EVs in the 'strong Dem' category, with Colorado putting Obama over the top. They also put Virginia and Nevada in the 'lean Dem' category, giving him 291 EVs. Over 100 EVs are in the toss-up status, all the states you'd expect -- NC, OH, FL, etc.

8:09 am - Votemaster has his prediction up: 353 for Obama, 174 McCain, with Missouri tied (that seems like kinda a cop-out)

6:13 am - My fourth presidential election (making this Election IV: A New Hope). If anything, I think that Obama's support in the polls has been a bit underestimated, due to cell phone bias and a giant surge in black turnout. On a Boston-specific note, I'm really enjoying Dennis & Callahan's attempt to put a positive spin on what's going to happen today. In two minutes of listening, I've heard the word 'socialist' 4 four times and an explanation of why all the polls are wrong. And now Obama is a flawed candidate because he should be up by 20 points -- the American people are stupid, is the issue (but I guess they were smart in '00 and '04).