Sunday, January 18, 2009

Championship Picks

But first, a fun item from today's Globe: Julio Lugo is "serious about competing for the shortstop job. He opted out of winter ball to devote his time to conditioning and has gained 20 pounds of muscle. Jed Lowrie will be challenged." What, did Lugo finally get treated for the 4 foot tapeworm living inside him?

The first rule of gambling is that you should bet more when you're behind, because only by digging harder and faster can one get out of the hole.
Philly -3.5 @ Arizona
Baltimore + 6 @ Pittsburgh

I'll start with 50 on Arizona. As I said last week, I like that Arizona is the sort of team that can comeback (indeed, after Carolina scored an early TD last week, many thought the game was going to be a blow out). Boldin should play, and the weather report calls for 70 and sunny. Let's remember, Philly's D looked so good last week because Eli couldn't throw a pass -- it is unlikely that Warner will suck it up to that degree. The Arizona D, while not anything to write home about, has been stout enough to let the offense win the game.

In the AFC, I'll take 50 on the Ravens mainly because I can't stomach the idea of Pittsburgh winning. Actually, I could see this game being a blow-out in Pittsburgh's favor -- well, not a blow-out per se, but if Pittsburgh gets up by, say, 10 points, does Baltimore strike you as the sort of team that could come back and win? Probably not. But, Baltimore has played Pittsburgh well this year, so I think it more likely that the game is close, making the 6 points attractive.