Monday, October 20, 2008

Can McCain count?

McCain has long given up on Iowa and New Mexico, two Bush states. Add these to the Kerry states and Obama has 264 EVs. But now CNN is reporting that McCain is giving up on Colorado. Colorado is worth 9 EVs... meaning that McCain is giving Obama 273 EVs. Um, you only need 270 to win. No Kerry states look even close -- Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Minnesota -- there is no reason for McCain to think he can pick off one of these states. And let's note that Obama is currently leading in Virginia, Missouri, and North Carolina, and tied in Florida, Ohio, and Nevada.

Let's say that something happens in the final two weeks to tighten up the race and makes any of these calculations worth figuring out (if nothing happens and the polls look like they do today, Obama gets >350 EVs). Okay, now McCain is back in it... except he has abandoned states that he'll need in order to actually win the election. If the election turns, North Carolina, Missouri, etc. will likely fall back in line -- but Colorado, Virginia, etc. don't. This is like a football team, when they are down by 9, insisting on scoring the touchdown first and going for it on fourth and 15 instead of kicking the FG. It doesn't matter how little you lose by, it only matters if you win. He is insane to be pulling out of Colorado, it is a state he absolutely needs.